Nigeria Rates & Economic Indicators

The GDP drop is not what it looks like

Nigeria's GDP in dollar terms fell 61% from $645.7B in 2022 to $252.1B in 2024. That decline was driven almost entirely by the naira losing value against the dollar after the 2023 exchange rate reform — not by the Nigerian economy shrinking. In naira terms, the economy kept growing. The IMF projects a 50% dollar-GDP recovery to $377.4B by 2026 as the exchange rate stabilises. The World Bank's most recent reported figure puts Nigeria's dollar GDP at $290.8B for 2025, consistent with this recovery path.

The economy is growing in real terms

Despite the dollar GDP fluctuations, Nigeria's economy grew +4.10% in real terms in 2026. Real growth measures expansion in actual output, stripping out inflation. Non-oil sectors grew +4.04%, outpacing the oil sector in this projection. For context, the World Bank reports actual real GDP growth of +4.01% for 2025.

Nigeria is earning more foreign currency than it spends

A current-account surplus of +5.80% of GDP means Nigeria is projected to earn more from exports and inflows — including oil revenue and remittances — than it pays out for imports, services, and interest on external obligations. This eases pressure on external reserves and the naira for this period. The World Bank reported a current-account balance of +4.83% of GDP for 2025.

What the government deficit means for your investments

The IMF projects a fiscal deficit of +4.40% of GDP, meaning the government is expected to spend more than it collects in revenue and borrow the difference. Government borrowing of this scale tends to keep the supply of Treasury bills and bonds high, which supports fixed income yields — but it also competes with the private sector for available credit. Government gross debt stands at 32.3% of GDP (IMF). This appears modest as a share of GDP, but Nigeria's government revenue is very low relative to the size of its economy, meaning debt service consumes a disproportionately large share of what the government actually collects.

Annual average inflation vs. the monthly headline

The World Bank reports an annual average inflation rate of 23.0% for 2025. This is the average across all 12 months of that year and tells you how much purchasing power eroded on average over the full year — different from the monthly NBS headline figure above, which compares a single month to the same month a year earlier. Both matter: the monthly figure shows the current pace, while the annual average shows the cumulative damage to savings over the year.